Peripheral Fluctuations: Notes on the Macroeconomic Analysis of Raúl Prebisch

Abstract

Prebisch's concern for exploring the mechanisms of economic fluctuations in peripheral economies, particularly in Argentina, and its analytical implications, was manifested from very early on, and throughout his voluminous production. One of the central aspects of his arguments was the primacy of impacts of external origin on the periphery cycles, the differences between the processes of these economies and the central ones, and the identification of mechanisms of undesirable amplification of fluctuations, relevant for the moderating action of economic policy. The present article deals with Prebisch's contributions in the macroeconomic field based on a (relatively small) subset of his works and, especially, on the detailed notes prepared for a course, which was given at the UBA in 1944, on monetary issues and economic cycle analysis, with special reference to the Argentine experience. The theoretical reasoning oriented and nuanced by concrete experience, and the practical considerations that are built on a precise analytical framework, mark an unusual integration of elements that are very rare to find together, and invite the reader to think and discuss. In the following decades, techniques, methods and approaches may have changed, but Prebisch cannot be read with an archaeological criterion: his work continues to speak of open and current themes and problems.

JEL classification: E30 ; E60 ; N16