A Cointegration Analysis on the Principle of Effective Demand in Argentina (1980-2007)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the empirical validity of the principle of the effective demand in the long run in Argentina from 1980 to 2007 using the Sraffian Supermultiplier model (Serrano, 1995). This will be done through the cointegration analysis using the Johansen method. The results of the evaluation show that the demand components have permanent effects in the long run and that there is a positive causality from final demand autonomous components towards the product. Furthermore, an estimate of both the short and the long run dynamics through an Error-Correction Model is presented. Most empirical studies in which income is determined by demand work with exports-led model à la Thirlwall (1999, 2000). Instead, not only the exports but also both the government and the non-salaried private expenditures are included in this article.

JEL classification: C22 ; E01 ; E12 ; 054